About

Words are marketing. The record is truth. Executives are paid to sound confident while their portfolios diversify. Politicians vote on industries their households hold. Fund managers talk their book after positioning. Different incentives produce the words and the paperwork, and the distance between them is signal.

The actions live in one place: Form 4s, 13Fs, congressional disclosures, lobbying filings, court records, government contracts, roll-call votes. The words live in another: podcasts, earnings calls, posts, interviews. Plenty of free tools show you one side. Nobody systematically joins the two. That joining, dated quote next to dated document, plus a judgment about whether the gap means anything, is what we publish.

Most gaps are routine. We say so.

This is not a scandal blog. The most common verdict on this site is “routine, scheduled sale, means nothing,” published often and cheerfully. That discipline is what makes the rare “this one is not routine” worth anything at all.

A forecaster, not a pilot

We forecast what the sky will do; we never tell you where to walk. Credibility scores attach to people, meaning how often their words match their hands, never to stocks. When we make a call, it is a falsifiable public claim with a deadline, scored on the Track Record page, losses included.