About

Words are marketing. Filings are truth. Executives are paid to sound confident while their portfolios diversify. Politicians vote on industries their households hold. Fund managers talk their book after positioning. Different incentives produce the words and the filings, and the distance between them is signal.

The trades live in one place: Form 4s, 13Fs, congressional disclosures. The words live in another: podcasts, earnings calls, posts, interviews. A dozen free tools show you the trades. Nobody systematically joins the two. That joining, dated quote next to dated filing, plus a judgment about whether the gap means anything, is what we publish.

Most gaps are routine. We say so.

This is not a scandal blog. The most common verdict on this site is “routine, scheduled sale, means nothing,” published often and cheerfully. That discipline is what makes the rare “this one is not routine” worth anything at all.

A forecaster, not a pilot

We forecast what the sky will do; we never tell you where to walk. Credibility scores attach to people, meaning how often their words match their hands, never to stocks. When we make a call, it is a falsifiable public claim with a deadline, scored on the Track Record page, losses included.