Friday · August 14, 2026

The Scoreboard

Every call is falsifiable: a named signal, a measurable outcome versus a benchmark, a deadline, and a confidence score. Losses are displayed exactly as prominently as wins, forever.

Open calls

№ 001 Open · closes 2026-11-12

The Pelosi household's paired Intel signal, a seven-figure ten-month call-option position plus public CHIPS Act advocacy, is a conviction tell. I expect Intel (INTC) to outperform the S&P 500 over the 90 days from the open date. Confidence: 6/10.

Intel (INTC) vs. S&P 500 · 90 days from 2026-08-14 · Confidence 6/10

How calls are scored

1. Every call is published in a fixed format: “X's gap on this asset is a tell. I expect underperformance vs. the S&P over 90 days. Confidence: 7/10.” No call, no entry.
2. Fixed windows only: 30, 90, or 180 days, graded against a benchmark, never in isolation.
3. Timestamped publicly at the moment of the call. History is never edited; a scoreboard that can be rewritten is worth nothing.
4. Losses stay on the board forever, styled identically to wins. A scoreboard with red on it is the only kind worth believing.
5. One call proves nothing; twenty make a distribution. We publish for months before we ask anyone to pay for calls. The record must predate the price.