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The Scoreboard

Everything here is derived from documents already on the site. Words that matched a document count as held; words that did not count as failed; a routine verdict is not scored either way. Losses and misses are shown exactly as prominently as wins, forever.

64% words held, 7 of 11 scored receipts
17 receipts on record, 6 routine
4 / 2 promises kept / broken, 19 not yet due
0 / 0 calls won / lost, 1 open

People, by how often their words held

  1. 1 Cathie Wood 100% 2 of 2
  2. 2 Jensen Huang 100% 1 of 1
  3. 3 Elon Musk 75% 3 of 4
  4. 4 Bill Ackman 50% 1 of 2
  5. 5 Nancy Pelosi 0% 0 of 1
  6. 6 Donald Trump 0% 0 of 1

32 of 38 people on the watchlist have no scored receipt yet and are not ranked. One receipt proves nothing; the sample is shown next to every percentage.

Settled watches

Cathie Wood Missed

Cathie Wood's bitcoin bottom: Was Jul 3, 2026 the bottom? Bitcoin had to stay above that day's close for the call to hold. It did not.

Closed Sep 18, 2026, missed. Bitcoin closed below the Jul 3 level on Jul 8 and again on Jul 13. The rule is strict on purpose: a bottom is a level, and the level was breached. That bitcoin then rose 25 percent does not change what the word means.

Open calls

№ 001 Open, closes 2026-11-12

The Pelosi household's paired Intel signal, a seven-figure ten-month call-option position plus public CHIPS Act advocacy, is a conviction tell. I expect Intel (INTC) to outperform the S&P 500 over the 90 days from the open date. Confidence: 6/10.

Intel (INTC) vs. S&P 500, 90 days from 2026-08-14, Confidence 6/10

Where it stands: loading the closes

Open watches, by next date

How it is scored

  1. A receipt is scored kept or aligned when the document matched the words, tell or missed when it did not, and routine when there was nothing to score. Routine never counts either way.
  2. A promise on a watch is graded against the document that settles it, on the date it settles. A watch closes when that document arrives, or when a stated line is crossed.
  3. A call is a falsifiable forecast: a named signal, an outcome against a benchmark, a deadline and a confidence score. Fixed windows only, graded at the close on the last day.
  4. Timestamped publicly at the moment of publication. History is never edited; a scoreboard that can be rewritten is worth nothing.
  5. Nothing here is a return on anyone's trades. The documents do not carry returns, so neither does the scoreboard. It scores whether words matched the record, and only that.