The three cheques

On the record since then

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1. 2026-11-04 Note The checkpoint, and the third promise will not be scored. It needed Republicans to win both the House and the Senate on Nov 3. On election night CBS News projected that Democrats had won the House, at 10:15 pm Eastern, and the Senate, shortly after 11:30 pm, with about 75 House races and two Senate races still to be called; the Washington Post and CNN projected the same. These are projections, not results: the states have not certified anything. The President's own posts that night point the same way. At 03:37 UTC he wrote "I wasn't on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!", and an hour later that the Governor of Texas "wouldn't have lost" had he not become "a RINO". So the condition on the $5,000 failed, and under the rule set when this page opened it closes with no verdict against him. If certified results ever reverse a chamber, this will be reopened. The $500 refunds stay open: the Treasury's daily statement, now read to Nov 2, shows no Marketplace payment since Oct 20 and nothing that names them, and CMS, HHS and the Treasury still have no notice we can find. The checkpoint moves to Nov 30. Source
2. 2026-10-30 Note The checkpoint, and for the $500 refunds we have still found no primary record. The Treasury's daily statement, read to Oct 28, names nothing that could be them. Its Marketplace Payments line carried the usual monthly payment on Sep 22 and Oct 20, $14,123 million and $14,234 million, and from Sep 15 to Oct 28 only one other payment: $2,777 million on Sep 25. That is more than five times the roughly $500 million that a million cheques of $500 come to, and the statement does not say what it was. CMS, HHS and the Treasury have published no notice of the refunds that we can find. News reports say the cheques began going out around Sep 30, but none of them points to a published record. So the second promise stays open and is not marked either way. The Medicare paper cheques due later in October cannot be picked out of the statement either. The checkpoint moves to Nov 4, the day after the midterms, which decide whether the condition on the third promise can be met. We will keep reading the statement for the refunds. Source
3. 2026-10-21 Note The checkpoint moves to Oct 30, the last business day of October. Two things are due by then: the Medicare paper cheques for people without direct deposit, and the $500 refunds, which the fact sheet of Sep 10 says begin in October. Some reports say the refunds began going out at the end of September. We have not yet found a Treasury or Medicare record of them, so nothing is marked. Source
4. 2026-10-15 Note The checkpoint. The first promise is marked kept. On Oct 8, the day Medicare named, Social Security paid out $2,015 million, about $1.9 billion more than on an ordinary day, against the $1.87 billion that 20.8 million payments of $90 come to, and Medicare published the letter that goes with the payment. The Treasury's statement does not name the payment, so this rests on the day, the agency and the sum matching. The paper cheques for people without direct deposit are due later in the month, and the other two promises stay open.
5. 2026-10-12 Data On who gets it. The White House fact sheet of Oct 2 says "Most Medicare Part B enrollees are eligible for the payments" and lists two groups who are not: people whose premiums Medicaid pays, and higher earners. The Medicare agency says 20.8 million people are eligible and that people in Medicare Advantage are not. Its own count for June, the latest published, has 64.7 million people in Part B, 36.1 million of them in Medicare Advantage and other plans and 28.6 million in Original Medicare. 20.8 million is 32 percent of everyone in Part B, and 73 percent of those in Original Medicare. The President's own post said "over 20 MILLION", which matches the agency. The word "most" holds only if it means most of Original Medicare, and the sheet does not say that. Source
6. 2026-10-09 Data The Treasury's daily statement for Thursday, Oct 8 is out and the money is in it. Social Security paid $2,015 million in benefits that day. On every other day since April that was not one of its four monthly payment days the line stayed under $1 billion, and on Thursday, Sep 10 it was $140 million. The gap is about $1.9 billion. The Medicare agency had said 20.8 million people would get $90 each by direct deposit from Social Security "on or around October 8th", which is $1.87 billion. The ledger does not name the payment: the day, the paying agency and the sum match. Medicare's site also now carries the letter, dated Oct 8 and signed by the President: "you are receiving a One-Time Payment of $90". Paper cheques are due later in the month. Source
7. 2026-10-08 Data The day the Medicare agency gave for the direct deposits. Its page is unchanged. The Treasury's daily statement runs two days behind and reaches Tuesday, Oct 6: Social Security paid $76 million in benefits that day and nothing near $1.87 billion has left. The first statement that could show the payments is the one for Oct 8, which is published on Oct 9. Source
8. 2026-10-07 Data The Treasury's daily statement now runs to Monday, Oct 5. The payment would come to about $1.87 billion, 20.8 million people at $90 each, and nothing of that size has left. Social Security paid out $83 million in benefits that day and the Medicare trust fund lines are their ordinary size. The Medicare agency's page is unchanged and still gives "on or around October 8th" for the direct deposits. Source
9. 2026-10-06 Data Read the Medicare agency's own questions and answers on the payment, dated Oct 3. Most of the 20.8 million eligible people are to get a direct deposit of $90 from the Social Security Administration "on or around October 8th", with paper cheques from the Treasury later in the month. People in Medicare Advantage are not eligible. Anyone checking on a payment is told to ring Social Security from Oct 15. It says the fund was created in 2008 "to make improvements under the original fee-for-service program" and that this is the first time a president has used it. It does not mention the Chief Actuary's certification that the law requires. As of Oct 6 no payment has been made and the Treasury's daily statement runs only to Oct 2. Source
10. 2026-10-05 Note Watch opened. The Medicare payment is the first to come due, and the fact sheet gives early October for it.
11. 2026-10-05 Data Read the Sep 10 fact sheet for the second promise. It says $500 per person to nearly one million people in the 30 states that use the federal exchange, limited to those who received no premium assistance, paid out of surplus exchange user fees, with cheques sent "beginning in October 2026". Source
12. 2026-10-05 Data Read the law behind the fund, 42 U.S.C. 1395iii. It makes $2,062,000,000 available "for services furnished during and after fiscal year 2027", which began on Oct 1, 2026. The fund is there "to make improvements under the original Medicare fee-for-service program", including adjustments to payments to providers and suppliers, and money may be obligated only once the Chief Actuary of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services certifies it is available. The text says nothing about payments to enrollees. Read on Cornell's copy of the code, because the House's own code site was down for maintenance. Source
13. 2026-10-05 Statement He posted the $5,000 promise a third time on Monday night, word for word as on Saturday: all adult citizens, if Republicans win the House and the Senate. Source
14. 2026-10-02 Statement His post gives the payment as "nearly $100" and adds the other two: refund cheques to one million people overcharged for health plans, and a $5,000 dividend "to every U.S. Citizen if, and when, the Republicans win the Midterm Elections". Source
15. 2026-10-02 Statement The White House fact sheet puts numbers on the first promise: a one-time payment of $90 to more than 20 million Medicare Part B enrollees, by direct deposit or cheque in early October, from the Medicare Improvement Fund, which it says Congress has given $2 billion and no administration has used. People whose premiums are paid by Medicaid, or who pay the income-related surcharge, do not qualify. Source
16. 2026-10-02 Statement He posted the third promise again the next morning, Saturday Oct 3, and the wording moved: "If Republicans win the House of Representatives and the Senate in the 2026 Midterm Elections, I’m going to give all Adult Citizens in the United States of America, $5,000." Every citizen became adult citizens, and winning the midterms became winning both chambers. Checked at source. Source