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Elon Musk

Pattern file

Elon Musk

Executive, TSLA, SPCX
Form 4, 13G/A, 10-Q, prospectuses

Lifetime record

On record since Nov 2021, latest document Jul 2026

5 receipts
75% words held, 3 of 4 scored
39 days average gap, words to document
1 open watch, next 2027-06-13

Held above the line, failed below, one step per scored receipt. Routine verdicts are not scored.

Promises on watch: 0 kept, 0 broken, 1 not yet due.

The record as a path

Elon Musk
100 gigawatts, one lineStill openThe last Cybertruck out of TexasStill openThe $30 billion Tesla has not drawnStill openOne SpaceX share for every kidStill open"Never been more optimistic." The next day's 10-Q: operating profit down 57%.RoutineSaid "I'm not selling." Three months of filings later: he didn't.Still open"Biggest product ever," said one day after signing for 20% control.AlignedHe said no further Tesla sales were planned. His own filings show three more rounds that year, about $14.4 billion.MissedHe let Twitter vote on selling 10% of his Tesla stock. His first filing shows a selling plan adopted seven weeks before the poll.Kept
Statements we checked3

What the colours mean

Each root, and the card it starts from

  • RoutineThe gap exists but means nothing. Most threads land here, and saying so is the point.
  • AlignedWords and filings point the same way, but nothing was promised.
  • KeptA checkable promise the filings confirm was honoured.
  • MissedA checkable promise with a deadline, and the deadline passed without it being met.
  • TellThe gap reveals something the words alone would not. Red stays rare on purpose.
  • Still openAn open question. It runs to the date something is due to settle it.
  • Open callA published forecast still running, scored at its deadline.
  • Call wonA finished call that was right. Blue, as on the board.
  • Call lostA finished call that was wrong. It stays on the board for good.

Each step along a root

  • SaidTheir own words: a post, a speech, an interview, a call.
  • TradeA buy or a sell in a disclosure report or a Form 4.
  • FilingAnother document on the public record.
  • Law or orderA vote, a bill, an executive order, a rule.
  • CourtA complaint, an order or a judgment.
  • DataAn official number: Treasury, Medicare, the Fed, an agency release.
  • EventSomething that happened and is on the record.
  • StockThe move since the thread opened. Green up, orange down.

Words are blue. Documents are grey and told apart by their icon. The last step takes the colour of the verdict, or of the question while it is still open. Nothing here claims one thing caused another: it is what followed, in order, each with its source.

The playbook

His superlatives track his filing calendar. The "biggest product ever" pitch landed the same week his 2018 award was implemented and his stake ratcheted toward 20%. The optimism register peaks when a control or capital event is near, and the claims themselves are usually checkable within days because Tesla and SpaceX file constantly.

On selling: the 2026 record so far shows zero open-market sales (the only Form 4 is a net-settled option exercise, codes M and F), which matches his May "I'm not selling" post.

His words run hot, but they have been directionally consistent with his hands this year. The thing to watch is not lying; it is choreography.

Receipt history

  1. 16 He let Twitter vote on selling 10% of his Tesla stock. His first filing shows a selling plan adopted seven weeks before the poll. Nov 6, 2021 Primary verified kept
  2. 15 He said no further Tesla sales were planned. His own filings show three more rounds that year, about $14.4 billion. Apr 28, 2022 Primary verified missed
  3. 07 Said "I'm not selling." Three months of filings later: he didn't. May 16, 2026 Primary verified kept
  4. 06 "Biggest product ever," said one day after signing for 20% control. Apr 22, 2026 Primary verified aligned
  5. 05 "Never been more optimistic." The next day's 10-Q: operating profit down 57%. Jul 22, 2026 Primary verified routine

What we're watching

  • Jan 2028 Tesla exercise shares are locked up. Any early sale (S-code Form 4) would break both the lockup story and the pattern.
  • Jun 2027 SpaceX IPO lockup expires ~366 days after the June 12, 2026 listing. His "not selling" claim gets its real test.
  • Quarterly Optimus claims vs. filed numbers: capex and margin lines in each 10-Q measure the "biggest product ever" pitch quarterly.

Statement stream, awaiting a filing pair

  • SpaceX has ordered 100 GW/year of HJT solar manufacturing equipment from Singulus in Germany.

    X, @elonmusk, post 2120302471210033426, checked at source, Nov 10, 2026

    A claim of fact about an order, with a counterparty that has to publish its orders. Singulus's market notice the same day describes one turnkey line, over €60 million, delivered in the first half of 2027, with more lines planned and production that "will scale to support more than 100 GW of production equipment". Neither Singulus nor SpaceX's own post says "per year" or that 100 GW has been ordered. Followed on the For now page: https://www.insidethesuits.com/now/m04-spacex-singulus-100-gw/

  • SpaceX contracts with the government are BOTH the best product AND the lowest price! Moreover government revenue will be less than 10% of SpaceX revenue this quarter and less then 5% a year from now.

    X, @elonmusk, post 2118737725964837353, read at source; a second post the same day, 2118761981037723848, adds: "SpaceX revenue this quarter alone will be substantially higher than NASA's entire annual budget!", Nov 6, 2026

    Two dated forecasts about the quarter that ends Dec 31. The size one can be tested: SpaceX's 2026 annual report, due early in 2027, gives the full year, and the fourth quarter is the year less the nine months in its Sep 30 quarterly report, which were $27,083 million. The third quarter alone was $14,575 million. The government share is harder. SpaceX's filings do not report revenue from governments as a line. They report one large customer, "Customer A", at 16.6 percent of third-quarter revenue, with revenue in all three segments, and they do not name it. Unless the annual report names that customer or breaks out government revenue, the 10 percent forecast cannot be scored from SpaceX's own documents. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026066880/spcx-20260930.htm

  • Each @SpaceX Star Mind super intelligence spacecraft will have over 250kW of solar power, which is about 20% more than the International Space Station

    X, @elonmusk, post 2105718806769512812, checked at source, Oct 1, 2026

    A specification with a number in it. What would test it: SpaceX's filings with the Federal Communications Commission for the constellation, which have to state what each satellite is.

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