Donald Trump

The playbook

He is the loudest subject on this list and the slowest to file, which makes him the one where the paperwork has to be chosen carefully. He does not file Form 4s on a portfolio, and he does not file the periodic transaction reports that members of Congress do. His financial disclosure is the annual OGE Form 278e, one document a year, so anyone promising you a running account of his trades is not reading a document.

What he does produce, constantly and on the record, is action with a date and a signature on it. Executive orders and proclamations are published in the Federal Register within days, they name the policy precisely, and they are his own instrument rather than someone's characterisation of him. That is the column we use. Said it at a rally on Tuesday, signed something narrower or broader on Friday, is a receipt in exactly our format, and it carries none of the risk that comes with writing about somebody's trades.

The second seam is Trump Media and Technology Group, which is a listed company with insiders who file, and where his own stake is a matter of public record. Read those filings for what they say and nothing more.

The rule that matters most here: nothing about this subject gets published on inference. Not on timing, not on who benefited, not on what a market did afterwards. A dated quote and a dated document, or we do not run it.

Receipt history

1. 11 Promised to halve your electricity bill in a year. Twenty-two months later he declared an emergency over the grid. Oct 3, 2024 missed

What we're watching

• Ongoing The electricity promise is now on the record as missed. Watch whether the administration restates a target date, which would open a second scoreable claim.
• Oct 15, 2026 Hyperliquid. On Aug 19, 2026 he said at the White House that the CFTC chair was working to bring the exchange into the US in a fully compliant fashion. No filing names anyone connected to the options bought hours earlier, so there is nothing to publish and may never be.
• Jun 2027 The annual OGE Form 278e is the only routine financial document he files. Next one lands around June.
• Ongoing First clean pair to look for: a public commitment on a specific policy, next to the executive order that follows it, where the order is materially narrower or wider than the promise.